Do you have fond memories of buying groceries, shopping for clothes, electronics (if you are anything like me, you don’t mind being lost in Best buy), Sharing a nice meal at your favorite restaurant, enjoying a movie, going to the bowling alley, mini-golf, club or a pub? And of course commute to the place of work, attending school, music classes. All these activities have changed for the foreseeable future. Unless there is a cure for this disease, this change is here to stay.
Given that, what is the new normal? There are a few aspects of our life that will be changed forever:
- Buying necessities
- Earning a living
- Education
- Entertaining the family and friends
- Planning for the future
In this installment, lets talk about Buying necessities.
Shopping
According to the Maslow’s hierarchy of human needs, the most basic needs are Food, water, warmth, rest, safety and security. Few 1000 years ago, these were hard to come by but now we take them for granted. We just shop for food, water and warmth (clothing). We rent or buy rest, safety and security in the form of a home.
Because of this disease, a lot of the grocery shopping and shopping in general has moved online. We are either having items delivered to the door step or having someone load your trunk on the curbside. In both cases, we are literally asking someone else to take the risk for us. They come in the form of store employees, personal-shopper-for-hire services, like InstaCart, and delivery workers. We are compensating them in some small way — Extra fees, tips, etc. This might be our new normal for the foreseeable future.
A side note, considering the elevated risk these people are taking and the fact that we consider these essential services, we need to rethink the minimum wage for the jobs in this sector.
This particular service industry is helping the society reduce direct human interaction, there by reducing the chances of infection. So next time you are using their service, don’t forget to thank them — because they are not just offering us the convenience of sitting on our behind but are mitigating the risk associated with this disease for us and our families.
What happens to the stores?
Does this mean that the brick and mortar store will start to vanish? I don’t think so. Instead, they will act more like a distribution center than a retail shopping center. In a distribution network, a retail store is the last mile. People used to travel the last mile to get the items home. The new normal will be, a lot of us will prefer to have them delivered or just pick up versus go into the store and browse the isles.
When you do choose to browse the isles, its mostly because you need something immediately and can’t wait for the item to ship to you home soon enough or schedule a pickup. And when you do, you shouldn’t forget to wearing masks and gloves.
You might ask, Aren’t masks and gloves a bit much, especially as a foreseeable-future-option? Its a valid question but you have to consider the risk.
What risk and why?
Because of uncertainty. As of first week of May 2020, there is no cure or vaccine for the COVID19 disease. Chances of recovery are slim unless you are hospitalized, especially if you are in the at-risk group. We have to be cautious until there is a cure for COVID-19, like the cure for Malaria, or Rabbis, where it might be inconvenient but certainly not a life and death issue. With little over 4 months, this disease infected 1.2 Million people and killed 74,ooo+ in U.S. (3.5 Million confirmed infections and 250,000+ deaths world wide) this is a disease that is not going to just vanish. Also, pay attention to the operative word being used, “confirmed” cases. As in, these are the people we know are infected. Nobody actually know the real numbers. Some people may have recovered at home with out report the infection.
The biggest risk is posed by what I call, “The Silent spreader”. They themselves don’t know they are carrying the virus. But they will spread the virus to the others unintentionally.
Aren’t they developing the vaccine?
Yes, they certainly are. Researchers around the world are working really hard to find a vaccine and cure but it typically it takes several years (source). It is not yet certain if Gilead Sciences’ antiviral medicine remdesivir, the most promising antiviral as of today, can cure this disease or prevent death that is caused by it. Jenner Institute at Oxford university is developing a vaccine — which is helpful to immunize the population but will not help if some one is already infected. But vaccine can only protect the healthy individual. who only get it ahead of time. We need a cure, if we want people to get out resume business as usual, like normal.
Its just like flu… (no, its not)
The infection-rate is the average number of people one-infected-person could infect the disease; it is represented as R0 (pronounced R naught). R0 for COVID19 is a little over 2 (source). What this means is, if you have 10 people infected with COVID19, they will eventually spread it to 1024 people vs. seasonal flu with an R0 of 1.5 will only spread to 58 people. The visual gives you an idea of the impact we are talking about — about 17.7 times more:
Okay, now what?
With out a cure it is completely uncertain when the society can be back to normal. What ever that normal is, would vary but individual communities. But for now, masks and gloves are your friends. Social distancing is the norm.
Maintain your distance — at least 6 feet
Pay attention to social distancing very deliberately.
If you have to step out, be conscious of where you are going and vigilant of what you are touching. Especially, don’t touch your face.
Once you are home, especially after going to a store, don’t directly go plop on the couch. Instead, go take a bath. If not possible, change you clothes and wash your hands and other exposed areas of your skin.
Stay home and stay healthy.
